Saturday, May 31, 2008

Election Prediction

Now that the Democratic nomination is - for all intents and purposes - wrapped up, let's look ahead to the general election. This year's presidential ballots will have unprecedented depth: seven serious candidates running national campaigns (with their names on most state ballots). Bob Barr may, indeed, redirect some votes away from John McCain, but Barack Obama will have to deal with threats from minor party candidates as well. Here's my prediction for the order of finish (with Obama beating McCain in the Electoral College - here's a great Electoral College predictor map - and no other candidate winning electoral votes).

1. Barack Obama
2. John McCain
3. Bob Barr (Libertarian Party)
4. Cynthia McKinney (Green Party)
5. Ralph Nader (Independent)
6. Alan Keyes (Independent)
7. Chuck Baldwin (Constitution Party)

I'm not quite ready to predict vote percentage or states won, but I wouldn't be surprised if all seven of these candidates pass the 1% mark.


Luca said...

mccain 49% (282 electoral votes. picks up michigan)
obama 43% (256 e.v., picks up iowa, new mexico, colorado)
barr 5%
nader 1%
baldwin 1%
mckinney <1%
keyes 0%

Anonymous said...

Any Libertarian voting for Obama is not very Libertarian or hasn't looked closely enough at him.Obama is CFR, he's trying to get us deeper into the UN which could eventually lead to them trying to disarm us.

I don't see how so many people could vote for a man who is for partial birth abortions.

Same for Bob Barr. He voted FOR the Patriot Act and supports the War on terror.

Mark said...

With such strict standards, will you be voting for anyone, anonymous?

Jake Featherston said...

I'm predicting Obama picks up (from 2004) the states of Virginia, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. McInsane picks up nothing.

The EV count is 311 for Obama, and 227 for McInsane. The beauty of this scenario is that even if I'm wrong, and McInsane retains Ohio, Virginia, and Nevada, Obama still wins. All he need do is hold all the states Kerry carried, plus picks up Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico. And Gore carried Iowa and New Mexico. Colorado hasn't gone for the Democrats since 1992, but I suspect it will this year.

Obama has a decent shot at carrying Virginia on his own, and will definitely do so if he selects Jim Webb as his running-mate. Sam Nunn might be able to bring Georgia in too, along with Virginia, which would give Obama a 326-to-212 victory over that senile old coot from Arizona.

Anonymous said...

Obama, Mccain, Barr, Nader, Baldwin, Mckenney, Keyes.

Barr wins electoral votes in Georgia. If Obama doesn't win a majority of e.v.'s, he'll offer Barr a cabinet post to put him over the top.